11. Probability statements




Identify these questions

Words can express degrees or levels of confidence that one can have and some verbal reasoning questions test your awareness of this.

These verbal reasoning questions test how well you know the meaning of certain words in terms of how likely something is to happen. They also test whether you understand definite statements (absolutes) and statements with doubt.

Examples of such questions are:

Which one of the following statements expresses the highest level of probability that it will rain tomorrow?

a. It is probable that it will rain tomorrow
b. It may rain tomorrow
c. It could rain tomorrow
d. It is not highly likely that it will rain tomorrow
e. It is more probable than not that it will rain tomorrow.

You can identify the presence of these types of questions in your exam by the presence of certain keywords like: chance, probability, likelihood, certainty, uncertainty and doubt.

Additionally, these keywords in different expressions can also appear as “answer options” in other exam types, like reading comprehension, and can sometimes act as the correct answer because of the presence of a “maybe”.

For example:

The builders in the text were:

(a) always ready.
(b) never ready.
(c) rarely ready.
(d) usually ready.
(e) not ready.

The strategy to answer these questions

To answer these questions, it’s important to understand the degree of certain words.

Here’s a list in order from strongest to lowest in terms of expression of certainty (confidence that something will/won’t happen):

  • Certain
  • More probable/likely than not
  • Probable / Likely
  • Unlikely / not probable
  • Doubtful/uncertain

Then, we also have to understand different circumstances of an event occurring:

  • Conditional – means something will happen if something else happens. For example: If I catch the bus, I will then be at school.
  • Intention – means someone planned but not certain.

Example Question/s

Watch video for explanation of the following question/s:

Which one of the following statements expresses the highest level of probability that it will rain tomorrow?

a. It is probable that it will rain tomorrow
b. It may rain tomorrow
c. It could rain tomorrow
d. It is not highly likely that it will rain tomorrow
e. It is more probable than not that it will rain tomorrow.

Which statement expresses intention and doubt?

a. I am definitely not interested in purchasing that item.
b. I plan to purchase that item but I’m not sure that it suits me.
c. I could buy that item but I am doubtful that it would suit me.
d. I wish I could buy that item but I know it would not suit me.
e. It is doubtful that I would buy that item.

Key Rules to remember

  • Know the different levels of probability for each word to be able to start keenly distinguishing between answer options – see the list.
  • Conditionals depend on something to make something happen.
  • Intention doesn’t mean certainty but an aim/plan.
  • Degrees of probability can also help in other exams (like reading comprehension).

Practice time!

Now, it's your turn to practice.

Click on the button below and start your practice questions. We recommend doing untimed mode first, and then, when you're ready, do timed mode.

Every question has two solutions videos after you complete the question. The first is a quick 60 second video that shows you how our expert answers the question quickly. The second video is a more in-depth 5-steps or less explainer video that shows you the steps to take to answer the question. It's really important that you review the second video because that's where you'll learn additional tips and tricks.

Once you're done with the practice questions, move on to the next checkpoint.

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